Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
